The prospects for WiMAX seemed to have dimmed somewhat in the past couple of years as a result of the strong growth of HSPA, which is often seen as a rival to WiMAX, and a recession that has reduced the appetite for the spending necessary to build networks.

But both the Middle East and Africa continue to offer some of the best regional prospects for WiMAX, as a result of the relatively low take-up of fixed broadband - or indeed any fixed lines - and growing demand for data services.

The Middle East and Africa have the lowest household broadband penetration of all world regions, according to research by Informa Telecoms & Media. Household broadband penetration in the Middle East as a whole was 9.39% at end-3Q09, and in Africa it was just 2.25%.

Of course, those figures conceal considerable intraregional variation. The rate of household broadband penetration is very high in some of the small Gulf states - above 90% in both Kuwait and Qatar - but in Jordan it was 18.85% at end-3Q09, in Iran 2.97% and in Syria only 0.45%.

In Saudi Arabia, household broadband penetration was 33.85% at end-3Q09, a lot lower than in some of its small Gulf neighbours. And Saudi households tend to be large, so population broadband penetration is a lot lower, at just 5.63% at end-3Q09.

New Saudi fixed-line operator Etihad Atheeb is among those seeking to take advantage of the country's relatively low broadband penetration by developing what it says will be the largest WiMAX network in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Only the Clearwire network in the US and Wateen in Pakistan will be bigger, according to Etihad Atheeb. Etihad Atheeb launched its service in June under the Go brand, and by October it said it had 45,000 subscriptions. Go is offering residential subscribers a free WiMAX/Wi-Fi modem and plans that cost as little SAR109 (US$29) a month. Go is also offering a USB modem for portable use.

Although Go is using the mobile 802.16e version of WiMAX technology, it is licensed as a fixed operator and so can offer only fixed and nomadic services and not mobile. But Go says the Saudi regulator should introduce a unified licensing program that accommodates the blurring of the lines between fixed, nomadic and mobile. Such a move would also allow Go to offer mobile services.

Saudi Arabia's No. 2 mobile operator, Mobily, acquired local WiMAX operator Bayanat Al-Oula as a means of targeting the fixed-broadband market. In mid-2009, Mobily awarded Samsung a US$100 million contract to expand the Bayanat network to cover up to 20 cities. Mobily says it will bundle WiMAX with other services, including its extraordinarily successful HSPA mobile broadband service. Mobily says the two services are complementary, with the HSPA service being designed for mobile use while WiMAX is for fixed (even though Mobily uses the mobile 802.16e version of WiMAX).

Zain Bahrain also regards its WiMAX and HSPA services as complementary offerings, aiming its WiMAX service aimed at the fixed-broadband market and its HSPA service at mobile broadband customers. But Bahrain's Mena Telecom, which also offers WiMAX services, plans to take advantage of the Bahraini regulator's ruling that the country's WiMAX operators can offer mobility starting in November.

In Jordan, Zain says it launched WiMAX services because it did not have a 3G license, but it did have WiMAX and ISP licenses and wanted to move further into the broadband market. In fact, Jordan's WiMAX market is among the busiest in the region, as a result of liberalization, the country's low broadband penetration and the absence of 3G services. Orange Jordan has been awarded the country's first 3G license and is scheduled to launch services in 1Q10; the country's other mobile operators have to wait another year to launch their 3G services. No. 3 mobile operator Umniah, Q-Tel unit Wi-Tribe and Bahrain-based Kulacom have launched WiMAX services in Jordan, in addition to Zain.

In Iran, where broadband penetration is very low, Mobin Net, which has been awarded a nationwide WIMAX license, has said that it is aiming to have 500,000 subscriptions within three years.

In Africa, a number of major operators - including MTN, Orange and Safaricom - are using WiMAX, as are smaller operators and new entrants. It is generally cheaper and easier to build a WiMAX network than a new wireline network for the data services that are seeing rising demand. WiMAX might also be a better bet for data than overloaded mobile networks. And WiMAX can be used for backhaul on those cellular networks.

Comium, which operates GSM networks in Ivory Coast, Gambia, Liberia and Sierra Leone, plans to launch WiMAX services in those countries and five others (Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Uganda and Zambia) by end-2010. Reliance WiMAX, a division of Reliance Communications, has acquired WiMAX licenses or licensees in a dozen or more countries in sub-Saharan Africa. And Augere, a company set up by former Orange group executives, has launched WiMAX services in Pakistan and Bangladesh and plans to do so in Tanzania and Uganda in 2010.

So there is considerable activity and potential. But that should be kept in perspective: WiMAX subscription numbers remain modest, particularly in comparison with HSPA. There were 107,300 WiMAX subs in the Middle East at end-2009, and that number is forecast to rise to 717,000 at end-2014, according to Informa. Africa had 192,400 WiMAX subs at end-2009, and that number is forecast to rise to 2.53 million by end-2014.

But there were 8.02 million 3.5G+ (HSPA and beyond) subscriptions in the Middle East at end-2009, and that will rise to 145.33 million at end-2010, according to Informa forecasts. In Africa, there were 6.2 million 3.5G+ subs at end-2009, a figure expected to rise to 138.51 million at end-2014.